RSS

Monthly Archives: July 2009

Yahoo 1, Microsoft 0

I’ve received a lot of e-mails today from people asking me my opinion about the Yahoo MSN partnership announced today. As I see it there are two consequences of the deal: first, I am confident that the partnership will have little to no impact on the market share of either of these two companies when it comes to search. Google is the de facto search engine, and consumers aren’t going to switch to something else just because there may be a slightly better algorithm on another site (and frankly I don’t think Bing or Yahoo has a better algorithm as it is).

So I expect Google’s market share to continue to increase in the coming years. Nothing Yahoo and MSN did today from a technology integration perspective is going to change that. The second point, however, is that I do expect Yahoo and MSN revenue from paid search to increase as a result of this deal. Why? Because the combination of two small paid search players, with two different but equally annoying platforms, will make it much more palpable for search marketers to allocate time and resources to running on these engines. There will be more clicks available from one source and we will only have to deal with one bad user interface and not two. The difference between spending $10,000 on Yahoo and $10,000 on MSN, versus spending $20,000 on one place is huge, so much so that I suspect that advertisers will be willing to increase their overall spent on these search engines.

The stock market reacted to today’s news by cutting Yahoo’s share price by about 10%. The rationale for this drop in price was that Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz did not get any upfront payments from Microsoft. I actually think this is silly reasoning by the investment community. First, as noted, I believe this is a long-term revenue driver for Yahoo, for the reasons stated above. But second, this enables Yahoo to focus on a part of their business that is still a significant differentiator compared to Google. Specifically, I am talking about content creation and development. Yahoo has great content like Yahoo sports and Rivals.com. And channels like Yahoo news and Yahoo finance, which have recently seen pressure from Google alternatives, could use a few bodies and some resources that had probably been dedicated to paid search over the last few years.

So if Yahoo can focus the company on building great content, eliminate unnecessary staff and basically outsource paid search management to MSN, all the while increasing their monetization of their search results, I see this as a great deal for Yahoo. Over time, if the content is really great, there’s a great chance to also increase market share in search, simply because people will start to use embedded search functionality on Yahoo’s content pages.

For Microsoft, on the other hand, I’m more ambivalent. I do think that this will grow their revenue from paid search, just like it will grow Yahoo’s revenue from paid search. But if the folks in Redmond think that this deal will be a big driver for Bing, as a significant competitor to Google in organic search, I think they are mistaken. There is nothing that MSN can do at this point to win the search battle. It seems to me that the announcement today signifies that Yahoo understands this reality, and Microsoft is still living in the 1990s, a time in which any category they chose to conquer was theirs for the taking.

 
1 Comment

Posted by on July 30, 2009 in bing, MSN, Yahoo

 

Note to Self: Don’t Use Dead Spokesmen

I see two cardinal sins in this email marketing I got today:

1. The spokesman, Ed McMahon, is dead. And his quote says “Take my advice, life is better with a Pride Power Wheelchair . . .” Maybe he is referring to that famous Eric Clapton song “Wheelchairs in heaven”?

2. Seems like a bad idea to use the “from” email address “offer@bio121DOUBLECROSS323.com.” Hey, look, another offer from Double Cross – must be a good one!

Email here:

 
1 Comment

Posted by on July 28, 2009 in Uncategorized

 

Google News – Maybe Having Human Editors Isn’t A Bad Idea After All

Don’t get me wrong, I love Google News – I probably visit it at least 3-4 times a day. For the most part, it seems to do a good job of capturing whatever the major news stories of the day are, and presenting relevant and factual sources for these stories. Every now and again, however, the algorithm creating the front page just gets it wrong. I found this headline today:

Is it possible that Israel has considered an assassination plot against Iran’s leadership – sure, its possible. But this article comes from PressTV, which is basically the official Iranian government news source. This is the same ‘news source’ that has described Iranian protesters as “terrorists” and completely whitewashed the popular dissent against the recently rigged Iranian elections. Indeed, the very purpose of this allegation of Israeli and Iranian terrorist collaboration to kill Ahmadinejad is consistent with the overall strategy of the Iranian government – to distract the public by blaming Israel and labeling legitimate protesters as dangerous terrorists.

To me it’s not only striking that Google News somehow concluded that this news story was the most deserving of getting top placement for the section on Iran, but even that Google is including this as a “news source” at all. Google News now includes group blogs, press releases, and apparently totalitarian propaganda rags. This presents a dangerous situation, as the uninformed reader may be easily swayed to accept as truth what is nothing more than purposely false reports masquerading as honest “news”.

A few years ago, Google and Yahoo had a PR battle over who had more pages on the Internet indexed by their respective search engines. One would say they have three billion pages, and the next week the other would announce they had four billion. Ultimately, many commentators pointed out that the battle between the search giants should have been about “quality” rather than “quantity.” When I do a search for “paid search experts”, I want to see a list of the ten top SEM experts (including me, preferably . . .), I don’t care whether the total number of search results is 50,000 or 51,000. Who looks past the first two pages (20 results) anyway?

And so it goes with Google News. There’s definitely a range of news sources out there – some are written by professionals who follow strict editorial standards (New York Times, Washington Post), others are written by pundits who sometimes push the envelope of traditional journalistic acceptability (Valleywag, TechCrunch, Drudge Report), and some should be read with skepticism or outright distrust (PR Newswire, PressTV). Google News, it seems to me, has an obligation to differentiate amongst all of these sources. It’s dangerous to assume that readers can understand the difference between truth, opinion, and distortion.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on July 17, 2009 in google news

 

Is It Really That Bad in Ohio? Hitwise and OMMA Think It Is

A day doesn’t go by where I don’t see some shoddy Internet statistics. I received my copy of OMMA magazine today and found this gem of a statistic – an overview of the top “unemployment” related terms and Web sites, courtesy of Hitwise:

While I have no doubt that Ohio has been disproportionately impacted by the economic downturn, it does seem a little bit hard to believe that the most popular unemployment related term in May was “Ohio Unemployment”, followed in second place by a search for the Ohio employment agency.

Since Hitwise collects its data through a sample of Internet users, the likely reason for this Ohio-centric data is that one or more of their sampled users lives in Ohio and did these searches, thus skewing the rest of the data.

One would think that either OMMA or Hitwise would have checked this before publishing this to tens of thousands of marketers, many of whom are as cynical about Internet metrics as I am. Hopefully the copy editor who let this fly is Ohio-based – the data might actually come in handy.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on July 16, 2009 in statistics

 

Cybersquating and Porn in One AdSense Ad on YouTube

How this one got past the AdSense quality team is beyond me . . . And why didn’t I think about buying the URL “peeplo” – I gotta get back on GoDaddy and add to my domain collection.

 
1 Comment

Posted by on July 14, 2009 in adsense

 

Piss Off One Consumer and He’ll Tell 2.5 Million People

The video “United Breaks Guitars” has received 2.5 million page views on YouTube . . . in the last week. Here’s the link:

And if that wasn’t enough, the story has now been picked up by CNN!

Bad customer service in the Internet age, it’s a bad idea!

 
3 Comments

Posted by on July 12, 2009 in customer service

 

Google Chrome OS – Bad Move for Google, Here’s Why

This is Google’s biggest, most controversial move ever – introducing an operating system to directly compete with Microsoft and Apple. I think this is actually a watershed moment for Google – it’s either the moment that they finally transcend search and truly move beyond the Company’s origins, or its the beginning of the end – the final proof that Google, perhaps like the Roman Empire, has just expanded too much, too soon.

My initial reaction here is that this is mostly a bad move by Google, for several reasons. First, as if it already wasn’t clear, this is a declaration of war against Microsoft. Though Microsoft is not the power it was 10 years ago, it’s still a company that is best left off your enemy list. $80 million advertising campaign for Bing – try $500 million now.

Second, building an OS is tough, much tougher than just building algorithms. In the past, Google has released their SaaS products full of bugs, content to let users sort out the problems and keep the software in perpetual beta. That sort of happy-go-luck approach won’t work if your OS crashes someone’s computer. Indeed, that’s the very marketing approach Apple has successful used to cut into Microsoft’s OS share.

Third, related to the challenges of building an OS, if a Google OS has lots of problems, it could well create a crack in the to-date impenetrable brand that is Google. The Google that consumers love may become, well, like Microsoft.

Fourth, if Google is successful, the combination of search dominance, apps, mobile phones, and then OS may be the straw that breaks the DOJ’s back. Indeed, the bundling of IE and Windows was at the core of the DOJ case against Microsoft – could Chrome and Chrome OS result in similar problems.

Fifth, as noted, the lack of focus. Google has teams working on mobile, office software, browsers, operating systems, maps, news, portals (the recent real estate announcement), and a dozen other side projects. What’s the Company’s priority, and how does search fit into this? Search is still the vast lion’s share of revenue – but is Google not putting their effort into the revenue basis for the company?

So what’s good about this move? Well, it will make people in Redmond paranoid, which I guess could divert focus from the Bing-Google battle (as noted, it will have the opposite impact). And I do like Google’s attempt to make this an open source OS, and to use developers from outside the company to contribute to this effort. As we’ve seen with Mozilla Firefox, this sort of approach can work.

Overall though, call me a cynic, but I think there are too many potential negatives here. Though I don’t think this is the beginning of the end – Google has plenty of runway ahead of itself – I do think this is a move that will later be seen as a big mistake.

 
1 Comment

Posted by on July 8, 2009 in bing, chrome os

 

Totalitarian Photoshopping: Did Orwell Anticipate YouTube?

Josef Stalin may well be the most under-rated dictator in history. Though most people would point to Hitler and Pol Pot as the most brutal leaders of the 20th century, by sheer numbers, Stalin was the worst. Read the Wikipedia summary of his life and you’ll see what I mean: “if famine victims are included, a minimum of around 10 million deaths — 6 million minimum from famine and 4 million minimum from other causes — are attributable to the regime,[81] with a number of recent historians suggesting a likely total of around 20 million, citing much higher victim totals from executions, gulags, deportations and other causes.”

How do such despicable people stay in power? In large part, through fear and intimidation – the high likelihood of being killed for even appearing to disagree with Stalin was no doubt powerful enough to thwart much resistance to his leadership. But Stalin was also particularly good at distorting history and pushing this historical revisionism onto the masses through media and education. Indeed, all dictatorships re-invent distant and modern history in a way that attempts to make the populus actually feel thankful that their rulers are acting with such brute force.

In Orwell’s 1984, allnews, entertainment, education, and the fine arts” were controlled by the ironically named Ministry of Truth. The Ministry spent almost all of its time doing one of two things – glorifying Big Brother, the leader, and demonising Emmanuel Goldstein, “Enemy of the People.” The message was clear – Big Brother is watching you (for your own good), and an attack against the country by Goldstein was always imminent, which required ongoing martial law and repression of the country.

Early in 1984, Winston decides to write a diary: “The thing that he was about to do was to open a diary. This was not illegal (nothing was illegal, since there were no longer any laws), but if detected it was reasonably certain that it would be punished by death, or at least by twenty-five years in a forced-labour camp.” Why would a diary be punishable by death? Because any narrative not controlled by the state could disrupt the state’s control of the narrative. If Big Brother was portrayed as he really was – an evil dictator – and Goldstein revealed as a non-existent prop to justify repression of the people – the whole system would of course be at risk.

So let’s return for a minute to Stalin. One of the techniques he used to reinvent history was photo manipulation or what we would now generically call Photoshopping. Check out this before and after picture – the before picture shows Stalin with some colleagues. After he had executed one of the people in the picture, the new version magically changed.

Now compare this to what is going on in Iran. The Iran government, like Stalin, has combined a cult-of-personality around their leader (indeed, he is called “The Supreme Leader”), with a continual pattern of blaming any domestic bad news on “the other” – in this case, the British, the US, and Zionists (which in some cases refers to Israel and in others just to Jews).

In the wake of the recent election rigging, the government has been quick to close down any outside media that ruins their narrative, and of course to label all the protests as riots staged by the BBC and the Zionists. In an amazingly hubris-filled and shameful moment, the Iranian government has even claimed that the CIA was somehow responsible for the death of Neda, an innocent protester killed by Iranian militia.

And the Iranians, like Stalin, are now using PhotoShop to support their narrative. This was first noted a few months back, when an official Iranian press photo showed the launch of multiple missiles at once was proven to be a PhotoShopped manipulation of a single missile launch. Last month, however, the Iranians were at it again, this time showing a pro-Government rally, with some extra attendees added in for good measure:

But there’s a potentially significant difference between Stalin and Iran’s PhotoShopping – it’s called the Internet and “citizen journalism.” The Iranians have done everything they can to thwart the truth from entering their country – from banning text messaging, to jamming satellite signals, to threatening foreign journalists with arrest.

But ultimately, the Internet is too prevalent and technology is too small to prevent the truth from emerging. A citizen journalist can film a brutal government crackdown with a tiny video camera and upload the pictures to a proxy web site (virtually impossible for the government to stop) in a matter of minutes. The government’s only option – as in the Neda case – is to retroactively respond to this “truth crisis” by reinvention. This is a far cry from the ideal situation – the one presented in 1984 and existent in Stalin’s Soviet Union – where no alternative narrative can exist at all.

None of this means that FaceBook, YouTube, and Twitter are going to shift the power from those with the bullets to the people in totalitarian regimes. But this does change the playing field – fear alone can only go so far – when people can readily access the truth, and see that a better life is possible – the notion that Big Brother is their only savior is weakened.

Indeed, in Iran, the disconnect between the official government reporting of the “Green Revolution” and what the population is seeing via the Internet and the BBC is so great, that the government narrative seems cynical at best, and farcical at worst. As more and more Iranians recognize the false reality that has been created for them, this new access to alternative narratives could very well play a significant factor in determining the fate of Iran’s current dictators. I for one hope that YouTube triumphs over PhotoShop!

 
 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.